What are the odds: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Polymarket traders give “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026” a 1.8% chance. Updated live as trades happen.

Where do these odds come from?

They are the live price on Polymarket, a prediction market where people trade on the outcome. A price of 14¢ means traders see about a 14% chance. They are crowd prices, not a WARNPOINT forecast.

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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Polymarket traders give “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026” a 1.8% chance.

Connecting…Polymarket$80K traded in 24h · $46.0M totalCloses Jan 1, 2027

Odds now

Yes1.8%—

Chance · last 7 days

10%0%

See this market on Polymarket ↗

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WARNPOINT risk score

China
ELEVATED · open dossier29 Taiwan
WATCH · open dossier21

More odds

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Odds are the market's price on Polymarket, not a WARNPOINT forecast, and they never feed the threat index, country scores or alerts. Not investment advice.