Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14%Gavin Newsom 12%+21 more
KalshiElections
Jon Ossoff26%
▲ 2
$1.6M24h
Prediction market odds
Connecting…What traders are betting will happen, live from Polymarket and Kalshi, next to WARNPOINT's own country scores. The number is the market's chance in percent; ▲▼ is the move over 24 hours.
MarketChance24hVolume
J.D. Vance 13%Marco Rubio 11%+28 more
Jon Ossoff22%
▲ 2
$1.6M24h
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 16%Gavin Newsom 7.6%+20 more
PolymarketElections
Jon Ossoff27%
▲ 1
$1.3M24h
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14%David Lisnard 12%+9 more
Marine Le Pen45%
—
$1.2M24h
November 30 21%December 15 70%+2 more
November 154.9%
▲ 1
$1.2M24h
J.D. Vance33%
▼ 1
$1.1M24h
November 13 51%November 15 94%+6 more
November 1193%
▲ 43
$941K24h
25 bps increase81%
▲ 4
$721K24h
JD Vance 18%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 12%+23 more
PolymarketElections
Jon Ossoff19%
▲ 2
$717K24h
9.5%
▼ 1
$678K24h
Benjamin Netanyahu 26%Avigdor Lieberman 6.8%+1 more
Gadi Eizenkot61%
▼ 6
$494K24h
J.D. Vance32%
—
$453K24h
November 15 46%November 22 53%+2 more
November 813%
▼ 11
$365K24h
PolymarketConflict
9.5%
▲ 1
$333K24h
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14%David Lisnard 13%+11 more
Marine Le Pen48%
—
$285K24h
Chuck Schumer87%
▼ 3
$277K24h
Alberto Núñez Feijóo93%
▲ 4
$262K24h
November 30, 202628%
▲ 9
$247K24h
PolymarketElections
2.7%
—
$238K24h
November 302.4%
—
$215K24h
46%
▲ 1
$186K24h
National Party98%
—
$180K24h
Mary Peltola (D)98%
▼ 1
$169K24h
None98%
—
$164K24h
November 3016%
▲ 2
$164K24h
Katherine Clark 2.0%Joe Neguse 2.0%+3 more
KalshiElections
Hakeem Jeffries95%
▼ 1
$159K24h
November 304.0%
▲ 2
$147K24h
March 31, 2027 5.5%June 30, 2027 8.5%
December 31, 20261.4%
—
$135K24h
Ulf Kristersson55%
▲ 2
$119K24h
No one 34%Benjamin Netanyahu 13%+18 more
Gadi Eizenkot50%
▼ 11
$117K24h
November 21 20%November 30 31%
November 1411%
▲ 1
$109K24h
November 156.8%
—
$102K24h
PolymarketEconomy
80%
▲ 4
$99K24h
Mojtaba Khamenei93%
▼ 1
$97K24h
PolymarketConflict
3.7%
▲ 1
$96K24h
Apple74%
▲ 9
$95K24h
Nicolás Maduro94%
—
$94K24h
Howard Lutnick 23%Kash Patel 21%+12 more
PolymarketPolitics
Pete Hegseth45%
▲ 3
$89K24h
Netanyahu - Israel PM 34%Sánchez - Spanish PM 3.0%+7 more
PolymarketElections
None before 202754%
▲ 1
$84K24h
1.8%
—
$80K24h
December 315.5%
▼ 2
$73K24h
December 31 8.0%March 31, 2027 30%+1 more
November 303.7%
▼ 2
$69K24h
Before Jan 1, 2027 79%Before Apr 1, 2027 87%+1 more
Before Nov 21, 202671%
▲ 2
$59K24h
2.7%
—
$56K24h
PP85%
▼ 4
$53K24h
December 3143%
▼ 3
$52K24h
PolymarketConflict
1.8%
—
$52K24h
November 3012%
—
$50K24h
December 31 15%January 31, 2027 24%+11 more
November 305.0%
▲ 1
$43K24h
November 3011%
▼ 2
$41K24h
Jared Kushner 43%Abbas Araghchi 42%+22 more
PolymarketConflict
Mohsen Rezaei50%
▲ 1
$41K24h
KalshiPolitics
23%
—
$37K24h
PolymarketConflict
100%
—
$36K24h
No meeting by December 31 10%United States <1%
PolymarketConflict
China89%
▲ 1
$36K24h
0 (0 bps)98%
—
$35K24h
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%
▲ 3
$34K24h
3.9%
▲ 1
$34K24h
KalshiPolitics
75%
▲ 4
$28K24h
No Talks by December 31, 2027 1.0%Turkey <1%
UAE98%
▲ 2
$27K24h
Chiang Wan-an66%
—
$27K24h
Hike–Pause–Hike81%
▲ 5
$26K24h
Apple87%
▲ 13
$26K24h
Pete Buttigieg 93%Ro Khanna 91%+42 more
KalshiElections
Gina Raimondo99%
▲ 78
$26K24h
2.8%
—
$23K24h
1.4%
▼ 1
$19K24h
US 1.9%Qatar / UAE <1%+1 more
PolymarketConflict
No meeting before 202796%
▲ 1
$18K24h
7.0%
▼ 1
$17K24h
Proposition 38 99%Proposition 42 94%+4 more
Proposition 599%
▲ 7
$17K24h
November 151.2%
—
$17K24h
Democratic party66%
▼ 1
$15K24h
Ted Cruz 86%John McEntee 80%+39 more
KalshiElections
Ron DeSantis90%
▼ 2
$13K24h
7.0%
▲ 3
$12K24h
Above 190 MMst 96%Above 200 MMst 69%+5 more
Above 180 MMst97%
▼ 1
$12K24h
Above 550,000 jobs 95%Above 555,000 jobs 73%+3 more
Above 545,000 jobs97%
—
$11K24h
92%
▼ 4
$10K24h
Before 202998%
—
$10K24h
Pause-Hike-Pause79%
▲ 8
$10K24h
At least 597%
▲ 2
$9K24h
Above 140,000 gallons 70%Above 150,000 gallons 46%+2 more
Above 130,000 gallons85%
▼ 2
$9K24h
Above 74 million short tons 97%Above 76 million short tons 95%+4 more
Above 72 million short tons98%
—
$9K24h
4.00% to 4.49%44%
▲ 21
$9K24h
Before Jan 1, 2028 10%Before Jan 20, 2029 13%
KalshiPolitics
Before Jan 1, 20274.0%
—
$9K24h
Yashar 80%The Democrats 18%+12 more
Together10%
▼ 80
$9K24h
PolymarketConflict
1.5%
—
$9K24h
<1%
—
$8K24h
KalshiElections
1.0%
—
$8K24h
Before Jan 1, 2028 12%Before Jul 1, 2027 9.0%
KalshiPolitics
Before his term ends24%
▲ 2
$8K24h
Above 450,000 jobs 96%Above 452,500 jobs 95%+4 more
Above 447,500 jobs96%
—
$8K24h
Before January 20, 202910%
▼ 10
$8K24h
Above 5666%
▲ 5
$7K24h
D-House, D-Senate, R-President 15%Republican Sweep 13%+4 more
KalshiElections
Democratic Sweep65%
▲ 1
$7K24h
At least 210 96%At least 185 96%+15 more
KalshiElections
At least 20596%
—
$7K24h
Above 60K 51%Above 80K 51%+9 more
Above 200K60%
—
$6K24h
KalshiEconomy
67%
▲ 1
$6K24h
43%
▲ 2
$6K24h
Before Jan 21, 202911%
—
$6K24h
KalshiElections
5.2%
▼ 2
$6K24h
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party 13%Sumar 3.9%
People's Party87%
▼ 2
$5K24h
Before Apr 1, 2027 37%Before Jul 1, 2027 55%+4 more
KalshiPolitics
Before Jan 1, 202718%
▲ 2
$5K24h
115 to 119.99 million 21%125 million and above 1.6%+1 more
120 to 124.99 million77%
▼ 12
$5K24h
Above 48 million 94%Above 49 million 90%+5 more
Above 47 million97%
—
$4K24h
Cuba3.0%
—
$4K24h
Before Apr 1, 2027 87%Before Jul 1, 2027 88%+3 more
KalshiPolitics
Before Jan 1, 202771%
▲ 2
$4K24h
7.0%
▼ 4
$4K24h
92%
▼ 3
$4K24h
Above 8.6 million TEUs 95%Above 8.5 million TEUs 93%+6 more
Above 8.4 million TEUs96%
—
$4K24h
Before 2029 12%Before 2028 8.0%
Before 203021%
—
$4K24h
Marco Rubio18%
—
$4K24h
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 12%Marco Rubio 8.0%+24 more
James Talarico18%
▼ 2
$4K24h
Before Jul 1, 2027 92%Before Jan 1, 2028 90%
KalshiPolitics
Before Jan 1, 202783%
▲ 15
$4K24h
Odds by country
Odds are crowd prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, not WARNPOINT forecasts, and they never feed the threat index, country scores or alerts. Links go to each market on its own platform. Not investment advice.