Where do these odds come from?

They are the live price on Polymarket, a prediction market where people trade on the outcome. A price of 14¢ means traders see about a 14% chance. They are crowd prices, not a WARNPOINT forecast.

WP Wire › Markets › Conflict

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Polymarket traders give “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30” a 3.6% chance.

Connecting…Polymarket$96K traded in 24h · $1.7M totalCloses Dec 1, 2026

Odds now

Yes3.6%▲ 1

Chance · last 7 days

10%0%

See this market on Polymarket ↗

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Odds are the market's price on Polymarket, not a WARNPOINT forecast, and they never feed the threat index, country scores or alerts. Not investment advice.