US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
Polymarket traders give “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) November 8” a 12% chance, and November 15 46%.
Odds now
November 812%▼ 13
November 1546%▲ 9
November 2253%▲ 4
November 3060%▼ 3
December 3179%▼ 1
November 8 · last 7 days
40%0%
Latest on WP Wire
Trump says he is highly unlikely to order Iran strikes if talks progressThe Kathmandu PostIran war and ambiguous fuel pricing squeeze Indian fishermenNikkei AsiaPakistan's Hormuz agreement with Iran faces test after LNG tanker attackNikkei AsiaBREAKING - France opens probe into Iranian cyber unit over fridge attacks: prosecutorsTG insiderpaperHundreds of French supermarkets had their commercial refrigeration systems remotely overridden on Oct. 11, pushing temperatures to 50°C. French officials suspect Iranian state-backed hackers carried out the attack, according to a Reuters…TG Osint613Pete Hegseth Impeachment Vote Expected as Trump Mutes Iran War EscalationNewsweekWARNPOINT risk score
IranSEVERE · open dossier64
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by…?4.8%Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through…?98%Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?9.5%Iran leadership change by…?2.4%Iran leader end of 2026?93%Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?2.7%Odds are the market's price on Polymarket, not a WARNPOINT forecast, and they never feed the threat index, country scores or alerts. Not investment advice.