Where do these odds come from?

They are the live price on Polymarket, a prediction market where people trade on the outcome. A price of 14¢ means traders see about a 14% chance. They are crowd prices, not a WARNPOINT forecast.

WP Wire › Markets › Conflict

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by…?

Polymarket traders give “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30” a 16% chance, and December 31 36%.

Connecting…Polymarket$165K traded in 24h · $4.0M totalCloses Jan 1, 2027

Odds now

November 3016%▲ 2

December 3136%—

November 30 · last 7 days

30%0%

See this market on Polymarket ↗

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Odds are the market's price on Polymarket, not a WARNPOINT forecast, and they never feed the threat index, country scores or alerts. Not investment advice.