Where do these odds come from?

They are the live price on Polymarket, a prediction market where people trade on the outcome. A price of 14¢ means traders see about a 14% chance. They are crowd prices, not a WARNPOINT forecast.

WP Wire › Markets › Conflict

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through…?

Polymarket traders give “US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through” a 100% chance.

Connecting…Polymarket$36K traded in 24h · $3.9M totalCloses Jan 1, 2027

Odds now

Yes100%—

Chance · last 7 days

100%0%

See this market on Polymarket ↗

Related markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by…?4.8%Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through…?98%Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?9.5%US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)12%Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?9.5%Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by…?28%

Odds are the market's price on Polymarket, not a WARNPOINT forecast, and they never feed the threat index, country scores or alerts. Not investment advice.