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China–Taiwan tracker — PLA activity, the strait and live intel

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Every reported Chinese military aircraft and ship around Taiwan, large-scale PLA exercises, coast-guard confrontations in the South China Sea and around Kinmen, US arms sales and cross-strait politics — collected from 310+ graded news outlets and government sources, in one place. Latest: “Taiwan says China is conducting "area denial" exercises in the western Pacific” (Infobae, 20m ago).

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Instability index
18/100
WATCH · located violence, not news volume
Last logged event
None logged
in 3 days of records
Events logged · 30 days
0
2+ outlets or an A/B outlet
Incidents · 30 days
0
corroborated by 2+ sources

PLA activity & confrontation log

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No PLA activity around Taiwan, large exercise or coast-guard confrontation has been logged since WARNPOINT started this log 3 days ago.

Built automatically from headlines reporting Chinese military aircraft or ships around Taiwan (mostly Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense counts), large-scale PLA exercises, and coast-guard confrontations in the South China Sea or around Kinmen — one row per day and type; 30+ aircraft in one report is logged as a surge. Plans, warnings, tallies and analysis are left out. Faded rows come from a single outlet that is not A/B graded.

China’s pressure on Taiwan

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How Beijing raises pressure on Taiwan — the ladder is WARNPOINT’s reading guide, and every example is a documented case.

  1. 1
    Political & diplomatic pressureStatements, sanctions on Taiwanese politicians and firms, winning over Taipei’s diplomatic allies, trade curbs.
  2. 2
    Grey-zone activityRoutine PLA flights and ship patrols, coast-guard patrols off Kinmen, balloons, cyberattacks.
  3. 3
    Median-line & ADIZ surgesLarge one-day surges, crossings of the median line, carrier groups near the island.
  4. 4
    Encirclement exercisesNamed large-scale drills around the island, live fire, rehearsed blockades and strikes on ports.
  5. 5
    Blockade or use of forceSealing off Taiwan’s ports or sea lanes, or attacking Taiwan or its outlying islands.

Latest around the strait

Past escalations — examples

  • 4
    Strait Thunder-2025A Apr 1, 2025

    Two days of drills that the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command said rehearsed blockade and strikes on key targets.

  • 4
    Joint Sword-2024B Oct 14, 2024

    A one-day drill; Taiwan reports a record 153 Chinese military aircraft.

  • 4
    Joint Sword-2024A May 23, 2024

    Two days of drills around Taiwan and its outlying islands, three days after Lai Ching-te’s inauguration.

  • 2
    Kinmen patrols begin Feb 14, 2024

    After two Chinese nationals die in a coast-guard chase off Kinmen, China’s coast guard starts regular patrols in waters Taiwan considers restricted.

  • 4
    Joint Sword Apr 8, 2023

    Three days of drills rehearsing strikes on Taiwan after President Tsai meets Speaker McCarthy in California.

  • 4
    Drills after the Pelosi visit Aug 4, 2022

    Live-fire drills in zones around Taiwan; ballistic missiles are fired over or near the island, and Japan says five land in its exclusive economic zone.

  • 3
    Median-line crossing Mar 31, 2019

    Two Chinese J-11 fighters cross the median line of the strait, Taiwan says — the first deliberate crossing in about 20 years.

  • 4
    Missile tests before the vote Mar 1996

    The PLA fires missiles into waters off Taiwan’s ports before the first direct presidential election; the US sends two aircraft-carrier groups to the region.

  • 5
    Kinmen bombardment Aug 23, 1958

    The PLA begins weeks of artillery fire on the ROC-held Kinmen islands — the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis.

Latest China–Taiwan headlines

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PLA activity & drills

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South China Sea

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US, Japan & arms sales

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Taiwan politics & defence

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Beijing’s policy & pressure

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Chips, trade & the economy

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Timeline · key moments

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  1. Apr 1, 2025“Strait Thunder-2025A” drills around Taiwan
  2. Oct 14, 2024“Joint Sword-2024B”; Taiwan reports a one-day record of 153 Chinese military aircraft
  3. Jun 17, 2024Chinese coast guard personnel board Philippine boats resupplying Second Thomas Shoal; a Filipino sailor loses a thumb
  4. May 23, 2024“Joint Sword-2024A” drills, three days after Lai’s inauguration
  5. Feb 14, 2024Two Chinese nationals die when their speedboat capsizes during a Taiwanese coast-guard chase off Kinmen; China’s coast guard begins regular patrols in Kinmen waters
  6. Jan 13, 2024Lai Ching-te wins the presidential election
  7. Apr 8, 2023PLA “Joint Sword” drills follow President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy
  8. Aug 2, 2022US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visits Taipei; the PLA holds live-fire drills around Taiwan from 4 August
  9. Jul 12, 2016An arbitral tribunal in The Hague rules in the Philippines’ case that China’s “nine-dash line” claims have no legal basis; China rejects the ruling
  10. Mar 14, 2005China passes the Anti-Secession Law
  11. Mar 23, 1996Taiwan holds its first direct presidential election, after PLA missile tests in waters off its ports (Third Taiwan Strait Crisis)
  12. Jul 15, 1987Martial law in Taiwan is lifted after 38 years
  13. Jan 1, 1979The US recognises the PRC and ends formal ties with Taipei; the Taiwan Relations Act follows in April
  14. Oct 25, 1971UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 gives China’s UN seat to the PRC
  15. Aug 23, 1958Second Taiwan Strait Crisis: the PLA begins a weeks-long artillery bombardment of the ROC-held Kinmen islands
  16. Dec 1949The ROC government under Chiang Kai-shek relocates to Taipei after losing the Chinese Civil War

Key facts

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Capital
Taipei — seat of the Republic of China (ROC) government since 1949
Population
≈23.6 million (UN estimate)
Status
Governed by the ROC since 1949 and never ruled by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which claims it; the PRC’s Anti-Secession Law (14 March 2005) authorises “non-peaceful means” if Taiwan moves toward formal independence
UN seat
UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 (25 October 1971) gave China’s seat to the PRC
US ties
The US switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing on 1 January 1979; the Taiwan Relations Act (April 1979) governs unofficial ties and arms sales
Taiwan Strait
About 130 km (80 miles) wide at its narrowest
Diplomatic allies
12 states recognised Taipei after Nauru switched to Beijing in January 2024
PLA activity data
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense publishes daily counts of Chinese military aircraft and ships detected around the island
Military service
Compulsory service extended from four months to one year from 1 January 2024
State media
Xinhua, Global Times, CGTN and PLA Daily are Chinese state media — graded S on WARNPOINT

Specialist sources

Travel advice

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🇺🇸 U.S. State DepartmentLevel 1 · Normal precautions
🇬🇧 UK FCDOLevel 1 · Normal precautions
🇨🇦 Global Affairs CanadaLevel 1 · Normal precautions
🇩🇪 German Foreign OfficeLevel 1 · Normal precautions

Is it safe to travel to Taiwan? →

Prediction markets

Taipei Mayor Election Winner68%Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?2%2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner66%China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?3%

Traders’ odds, not a WARNPOINT forecast · all Taiwan odds →

Questions people ask

Is China conducting military activity around Taiwan right now?

Nothing has been reported by two or more outlets in WARNPOINT’s records (3 days). The log updates every 15 minutes from 310+ news sources.

How dangerous is China–Taiwan right now?

China–Taiwan is rated Watch on WARNPOINT’s open-source instability index, at 18/100. The score measures located violence and crisis reporting inside the country — not how often it is in the news.

Is it safe to travel to China–Taiwan?

Government travel advice: U.S. State Department — Level 1 (Normal precautions); UK FCDO — Level 1 (Normal precautions); Global Affairs Canada — Level 1 (Normal precautions); German Foreign Office — Level 1 (Normal precautions).

Is Taiwan part of China?

Taiwan has been governed by the Republic of China since 1949 and has never been ruled by the People’s Republic of China, which claims it as a province. Most countries, including the US, formally recognise Beijing but keep unofficial ties with Taipei; 12 states recognised Taipei after Nauru switched in January 2024.

What is the median line of the Taiwan Strait?

An unofficial line down the middle of the strait that both militaries largely kept to for decades. China says it does not recognise it; Taiwan reports PLA aircraft that cross it.

How wide is the Taiwan Strait?

About 130 km (80 miles) at its narrowest point, between Fujian province and Taiwan’s west coast.

What were the Joint Sword and Strait Thunder drills?

Named large-scale PLA exercises around Taiwan: “Joint Sword” in April 2023, “Joint Sword-2024A” in May 2024, “Joint Sword-2024B” in October 2024 and “Strait Thunder-2025A” in April 2025. They followed the 2022 drills after Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.

Where does this information come from?

From 310+ news outlets WARNPOINT reads around the clock — including Taipei Times, The Diplomat, South China Morning Post, Nikkei Asia and international wires — each graded for reliability. Chinese state media (Xinhua, Global Times) is graded S and labelled. Aircraft and ship counts are Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense figures. Nothing on this page is AI-written.

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